The Center for Taiwan Studies at the University of Austin is pleased to announce the launch of a special talk series this March, centered around Taiwan’s political landscape. . Distinguished speakers include Dr. Austin Wang (UNLV and RAND Corporation), Yin-Shan Huang (National Chengchi University), Dr. Shu-An Tsai (Tunghai University), and Dr. Tse-Min Lin (UT Austin). See full details at: https://www.liberalarts.utexas.edu/cts/news/taiwan-month-a-talk-series-nbsp
“Willingness to Fight in Asymmetric Wars”
Dr. Austin Wang, University of Nevada, Las Vegas, and RAND Corporation
The decision to risk one’s life is among the most consequential choices an individual can make. In asymmetric wars, where the weaker side faces slim chances of victory, history repeatedly shows people rising to fight for their countries. What drives this willingness? Drawing on a comprehensive analysis of experiments, quasi-experiments, and panel data from Taiwan (2004–2024), I explore the psychological mechanisms underpinning Taiwanese people’s willingness to fight in the scenario of China’s invasion: group identity, perceived collective action, military training, and third-party intervention. Additionally, cross-national data (2022–2024) highlights how public support for Ukraine has shaped foreign policy decisions, including military aid and high-level diplomatic visits, underscoring the powerful role of public opinion in driving costly policy actions.
“Gray Zone, Hybrid Warfare, or Coercion? Exploring Analytical Framework of China's Behavior in Near-Seas”
Yin-Shan Huang, Graduate Institute of East Asian Studies, National Cheng-Chi University
In the past decade, China has significantly bolstered its control of the so-called near-seas, which include the South China Sea, the East China Sea, the Yellow Sea, and the Taiwan Strait. While grey zone, hybrid warfare, or coercion are the most used terms to describe such behaviors, these concepts lack comparison in definition and applicability, with no mention of Beijing's overall near-sea perspective. The evaluation of these analytical frameworks concludes that China’s behaviors are best understood through the lens of coercion, mainly as defined by China's concept of wēishè (威懾), which translates to deterrence. Existing coercion theory should break the classification limitations to analyze China's cross-regional and multi-domain domain activities in the near-seas. The concepts “A2/AD”, “Coastal Defense,” and “Active Defense” can differentiate Beijing's strategies and tactics, as well as identify its target objects and the third party. Such understanding benefits international affairs practitioners and extends the realm of coercion theory, carrying both practical and theoretical significance.
“Standing Against Hate Crimes Toward Asian Americans: Rising Voter Turnout and Maintaining Conservative Alignment”
Dr. Shu-An Tsai, Tunghai University
Voter turnout among Asian Americans has increased since the onset of COVID-19, coinciding with a rise in hate crimes against this community. At the same time, it has been suggested that these hate crimes have united Asian Americans, prompting them to organize various political events across different Asian ethnicities. In this paper, we use survey experiments to explore American voters' support for candidates who stand against hate crimes, with a particular focus on Asian Americans. A total of 1,537 U.S. survey responses were collected. The research uncovers both the influence of hate crimes on Asian American voters and the limitations of this influence. The results suggest that while hate crimes motivate Asian Americans to vote as a way to express their dissatisfaction, candidates who oppose hate crimes against Asian Americans may still struggle to gain their full support. A candidate's stance on policies related to hate crimes does not significantly affect Asian Americans' voting choices.
"The Impact of China's Fighter Jet Incursions on Public Sentiment in Taiwan: The Mediating Role of News Media"
Tse-Min Lin, Associate Professor (UT Austin) on a paper collaborated with Pi-shu Chen, CEO (Influence Communication Co., Ltd)
Since 2016, China has conducted regular military aircraft incursions into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), with a marked escalation following Nancy Pelosi’s visit in August 2022. These sorties, part of China's brinkmanship strategy, underscore its resolve to achieve unification with Taiwan and strengthen its bargaining position not only with Taiwan but also with the international community, particularly the United States. Beyond its military objectives, a critical question arises: to what extent have these incursions influenced public sentiment in Taiwan? This issue is significant as it directly relates to the audience costs associated with China’s actions. This research addresses this question by analyzing daily time series data from 2022 to 2025. Our initial findings suggest that ADIZ incursions primarily impact Taiwanese public sentiment indirectly, with media coverage acting as a key mediator. Furthermore, partisan media reports appear to shape public sentiment in distinct ways, amplifying differences along political lines.
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